SpaceX planning next launch for November - going to dock with ISS

In article , bthorn64
@suddenlink.net says...

On Mon, 22 Aug 2011 09:04:08 -0400, Jeff Findley
wrote:


Several sources, including Space.com and Wikipedia (caveat emptor)
suggest that the total Shuttle program cost from inception to final
flight, was around $200 billion.

There were 135 flights.

$1.48 billion per flight.

This is the only fair way to figure a "cost per flight" of a system.

I do wonder, though, if other launch systems are costed the same way.
I am very doubtful Titan IV was.

I'm not sure you could get an accurate accounting for Titan IV, given
its mission. But Wikipedia says this:

In 1990, the Titan IV Selected Acquisition Report estimated the
total cost for the acquisition of 65 Titan IV vehicles over a
period of 16 years to US$ 18.3 billion (inflation adjusted US
$ 30.8 billion in 2011).

So that's about $474 million per launch compared to Shuttle's $1.48
billion per flight. When all you're doing is putting a satellite into
orbit, this makes the shuttle look expensive by comparison, which is sad
given that Titan IV is often cited as an overly expensive program.

This is the primary source:

GAO - Titan IV Launch Vehicle
Restructured Program Could Reduce Fiscal Year 1992 Funding Needs
http://archive.gao.gov/d19t9/144770.pdf

But note that the total cost is still stated as an estimate.

Jeff
--
" Ares 1 is a prime example of the fact that NASA just can't get it
up anymore... and when they can, it doesn't stay up long. "
- tinker

And the payloads still aren't there. The West still doesn't come
close
to having 50 payloads per year waiting for launch, never mind more
payloads than that since Ariane and Shuttle could both have launched
more than one at a time.

Brian

there would of been more payloads if the cost of launch were
dramatically lower..........

Alan Erskine wrote:
http://www.spacex.com/updates.php


Erm,

Not to put a fly in anybody's ointment and sorry to revive an old thread
but...

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/statio...27unmannedops/

What if Dragon shows up and there's nobody there to greet it?
Can they do this mission w/o occupants aboard the ISS?

Is there a dependency here on getting a good Breeze before the
Dragon can fly? (Sorry couldn't help myself here...)

Dave

On 09/07/2011 12:26 AM, David Spain wrote:
Alan Erskine wrote:
http://www.spacex.com/updates.php


Erm,

Not to put a fly in anybody's ointment and sorry to revive an old thread
but...

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/statio...27unmannedops/

What if Dragon shows up and there's nobody there to greet it?
Can they do this mission w/o occupants aboard the ISS?

No, a crew must be aboard to capture Dragon with the SSRMS.

They can't even complete the C2 demo objectives without a crew, since
one of the key objectives was to test crew commanding of Dragon from ISS
using the CCP/CUCU.

Is there a dependency here on getting a good Breeze before the
Dragon can fly? (Sorry couldn't help myself here...)

Briz is a Proton upper stage. It's not used for Soyuz.

On Sep 7, 2:33*am, "Jorge R. Frank" wrote:
On 09/07/2011 12:26 AM, David Spain wrote:

Alan Erskine wrote:
http://www.spacex.com/updates.php

Erm,

Not to put a fly in anybody's ointment and sorry to revive an old thread
but...

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/statio...27unmannedops/

What if Dragon shows up and there's nobody there to greet it?
Can they do this mission w/o occupants aboard the ISS?

No, a crew must be aboard to capture Dragon with the SSRMS.

They can't even complete the C2 demo objectives without a crew, since
one of the key objectives was to test crew commanding of Dragon from ISS
using the CCP/CUCU.

Is there a dependency here on getting a good Breeze before the
Dragon can fly? (Sorry couldn't help myself here...)

Briz is a Proton upper stage. It's not used for Soyuz.

nasa says they can strech soyuz return time till late december,
although it will re enter in bad winter weather.

given the hazards of a unmanned ISS its better to keep it manned as
long as possible

On 7/09/2011 11:02 PM, bob haller wrote:
On Sep 7, 2:33 am, "Jorge R. wrote:
On 09/07/2011 12:26 AM, David Spain wrote:

Alan Erskine wrote:
http://www.spacex.com/updates.php

Erm,

Not to put a fly in anybody's ointment and sorry to revive an old thread
but...

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/statio...27unmannedops/

What if Dragon shows up and there's nobody there to greet it?
Can they do this mission w/o occupants aboard the ISS?

No, a crew must be aboard to capture Dragon with the SSRMS.

They can't even complete the C2 demo objectives without a crew, since
one of the key objectives was to test crew commanding of Dragon from ISS
using the CCP/CUCU.

Is there a dependency here on getting a good Breeze before the
Dragon can fly? (Sorry couldn't help myself here...)

Briz is a Proton upper stage. It's not used for Soyuz.

nasa says they can strech soyuz return time till late december,
although it will re enter in bad winter weather.

given the hazards of a unmanned ISS its better to keep it manned as
long as possible

Can't ISS be attitude controlled remotely? What about altitude?

The latest word on the issue is that the gas generator problem on the Progress
upper stage is a programming (software) problem.

This is good news, at least it suggests the possibility that a fix
can be deployed in time to prevent depopulation of ISS and thus allow
the Dragon mission to continue w/o a postponement.

However, I presume the Russians would want to test the fix on another Progress
first before another Soyuz is launched. So maybe there just isn't enough time
to prevent it (depopulation).

Dave

On Fri, 09 Sep 2011 14:21:22 -0400, JF Mezei
wrote:

With no supply vehicles coming, they may be forced to reduce crew to 3
sooner than required by the oldest soyuz to stretch how long the
remaining 3 can stay based on limited food/supplies.

Supplies won't be an issue until about a year from now, and that only
if Dragon and Cygnus fail. Then they might have to think of reducing
crew, but I think they'd go down to five instead of all the way down
to three, and launch one of next year's Soyuzes with two instead of
three crew.

Anyone have any info on how long the current supplies could last with a
crew of 6 without any incoming cargo ?

Everything I've read is "well into next year." But that won't be an
issue because at least three will have to come home long before then
as their Soyuz expires. Progress will RTF before Soyuz, so this is a
moot point.

Also, with a crew on board, they can empty the first progress to arrive
and let it dive into the pacific to ensure it can do the whole job with
the new software.

The software flaw was not in Progress, but in Stage 3 of the Soyuz
rocket. In any case, the gas generator in question is on Stage 3 and
it is of no use to test Progress computers and software.

Otherwise, they would want to let the progress stay at ISS until crews
return to empty it.

With two Soyuzes gone, there is plenty of room for more than one
Progress.

It is a shame that they can't reduce the crew down to 2 like they had
done when the shuttle was grounded after columbia.

They can. But why? It isn't necessary at all. ATV-2, HTV-2, STS-133
and STS-135 loaded up ISS with supplies and spare parts in case of a
cargo delivery failure or delay (they just expected it would be
necessary because of Dragon and Cygnus, not Progress.) The Leonardo
"Supply Closet" is undoubtedly still filled to the brim with
supplies., since it was refilled with stuff from STS-135 only two
months ago.

If flighst resume in November, it should be a busy month with 2 crewed
soyyz to repopulate the station, probably a progress. Perhaps SpaceX
might be told to wait until december ?

They won't launch two in close order. They'll still need to space out
Soyuz flights for future scheduling because they won't want to always
have to launch two Soyuzes a couple of weeks apart for the foreseeable
future. Soyuz manufacturing and delivery schedules haven't changed.

Dragon already is berthing in December. It launches after Thanksgiving
and flies two weeks on its own, checking out systems before being
allowed to proceed to the Station.

On the other hand, they may need all the supplies they can to restock
the station and may welcome the spaceX in november. (since it is to use
US side berthing, it wouldn't affect the russian docking ports).

Always good to get more supplies. But lets not put more pressure on
SpaceX. They're still very new at this, and things can easily go wrong
even for the old pros, as the Progress failure demonstrated.

Brian

On 10/09/2011 6:11 AM, Brian Thorn wrote:


Everything I've read is "well into next year." But that won't be an
issue because at least three will have to come home long before then
as their Soyuz expires. Progress will RTF before Soyuz, so this is a
moot point.

Why will Progress Return To Flight before Soyuz? As far as I know,
there is no problem with the Soyuz spacecraft; the LV is the source of
the problem.

If supplies on ISS aren't a problem, but replacement of Soyuz is, then
that would surely be the first launch.

On Sat, 10 Sep 2011 09:45:38 +1000, Alan Erskine
wrote:

On 10/09/2011 6:11 AM, Brian Thorn wrote:


Everything I've read is "well into next year." But that won't be an
issue because at least three will have to come home long before then
as their Soyuz expires. Progress will RTF before Soyuz, so this is a
moot point.

Why will Progress Return To Flight before Soyuz? As far as I know,
there is no problem with the Soyuz spacecraft; the LV is the source of
the problem.

Because they'll want to verify the fix with something other than a
crewed spacecraft.

Brian